West Antarctic Ice Sheet Will Melt A Lot, No Way to Stop It

Ocean modelling suggests coastal cities around the world need to start preparing for several metres of sea level rise over the coming centuries

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A computer model of the ocean says that even if the world reaches its 1.5°C climate goal, warm seawater will melt the ice shelves holding back the West Antarctic ice sheet.

The study doesn’t say exactly how much the sea will rise, but it tells leaders they should get ready for sea levels to go up a lot over next few hundred years.

Kaitlin Naughten at the British Antarctic Survey says, “Some things related to climate change, like this one, are going to happen, and we can’t prevent them. We’ll need to adjust and get ready for them.”

In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that, with moderate emissions, sea levels could increase by 0.5 to 1 meter by 2100.

However, Kaitlin Naughten’s team suggests that sea-level rise may surpass the IPCC’s estimates, but they can’t provide an exact figure.

In waters around Antarctica, the surface is very cold at about -1.5°C, but deeper down a bit warmer at around 1°C, which is enough to melt ice.

Using a model of the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, Naughten and her colleagues predict that changing ocean currents will bring this warmer water closer to the surface, causing the ice shelves to melt.

The melting of floating ice doesn’t immediately raise sea levels, but when these ice shelves disappear, it accelerates the flow of land-based ice into the ocean. Furthermore, a significant portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet sits on rock below sea level.

As these ice shelves vanish, the underlying ice will be exposed to the warming ocean water, causing the base to melt and leading to the collapse of ice above sea level. This “cliff collapse” could result in the rapid retreat of the ice.

The computer model indicates that the warming of the Amundsen Sea will progress at a similar pace over the next 50 years across four emissions scenarios, ranging from best to worst. It’s only around 2080 that noticeable differences in ocean warming start to appear.

However, Kaitlin Naughten emphasises the importance of reducing emissions as quickly as possible. She notes, “Even if we can’t avoid this specific consequence, the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is just one aspect of climate change.”

For instance, we still have the opportunity to prevent the loss of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which contains ten times more ice than the West Antarctic one, she points out.

Eric Rignot at the University of California, Irvine, commends this modeling effort for its high-resolution approach. Ed Gasson from the University of Exeter agrees that the study is correct in suggesting that the West Antarctic ice sheet is heading for collapse.

He emphasises that, considering the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and knowledge from paleoclimate studies, the eventual collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet isn’t surprising.

However, the speed at which this might happen remains uncertain. Both Rignot and Gasson point out that this study focuses solely on the ocean and doesn’t take atmospheric processes into account.

Rignot suggests that other research indicates that a rapid reduction in emissions could alter the winds around Antarctica &, consequently, ocean currents. Rignot disagrees with the notion that it’s too late to prevent this collapse entirely.

He believes that by aggressively reducing greenhouse gas emissions and additionally sequestering atmospheric carbon, returning to earlier 20th-century concentration levels might slow down the retreat.

However, the reality is that global greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing instead of decreasing. Meanwhile, in various coastal areas and cities worldwide, development continues, making it increasingly challenging to protect them from the rising sea levels.

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